How 1% of Polymarket Bettors Are Boosting Trump’s Odds
An analysis of millions of transactions shows a handful of accounts with outsize impact.
Since Sept. 1, more than 102,000 Polymarket users have bet on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States, propelling Trump’s likelihood of victory to a high of 66.4% on Tuesday despite polls remaining close. According to trading activity, a small number of users are having an outsized impact on the odds.
Nearly half of all purchase volume comes from 670 power traders representing 0.7% of all accounts, according to blockchain data from Dune.com. Many of these users are acting as market makers, buying and selling constantly to earn the small rewards Polymarket pays to accounts that provide liquidity. These users typically play both sides of the market and have limited exposure.