US Economic Outlook Faces Two Storm Fronts

When it comes to trade and deficits, today was not a great day for the US economic outlook. First there was new data showing the number of shipping containers carrying US imports fell for a second straight month, setting the stage for one of the sharpest year-on-year reversals on record thanks to President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Veteran industry analyst John McCown, writing in a monthly report based on the 10 largest US ports, said that inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before. Similar declines during the global financial crisis and the pandemic were short-term slumps. In this case, however, he estimated that a 25% reduction in US container volumes is “readily possible” and would translate “directly into a $510 billion reduction in annual commerce for the US.”